FEBRUARY ALMANAC

STOCKS AND BONDS
S&P 500 has shown a tendency to decline before Presidents' Day weekend holiday, and as our seasonal pattern shows (page 138), the S&P 500 tends to continue that decline into March in recent years. 30-year Treasury bond prices have a tendency to continue their decline in February, as we hold a short position from November (page 106).
ENERGY
Crude oil makes a strong seasonal bottom, registering a whopping 82.8% success rate with 24 gains in 29 years (pages 26 and 126). February marked the annual low in 2009 and a seasonal low in 2010 and 2011 (page 143). Natural gas also generates a stellar trade from its mid-winter bottom with a 72.7% success rate, gaining 16 out of the last 22 years (page 32). Cover Short Heating Oil from January and look to enter long position on the 8th trading day headed into mid-April through peak heating season. This trade boasts a 78.8% success rate since 1980.
METALS
Gold has demonstrated a tradable seasonal downturn from late February to mid-March (page 124). In 2009, gold peaked at $1013 on February 20 and traded ...

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