Commodity Trader's Almanac 2013: For Active Traders of Futures, Forex, Stocks, Options, and ETFs

MAY ALMANAC

STOCKS AND BONDS

S&P's have shown a tendency to see price declines—as the saying goes “sell in May and go away.” However, no one said it was the beginning of the month. In recent years we start to see stocks peak in mid- to end of month, as illustrated in our seasonal chart (page 138). 30-year Treasury bonds prices continue their bottoming process in May, as seen in our seasonal chart (pages 42 and 140).

ENERGY

Liquidate crude oil long from February on or about May 13 (page 26). Natural gas generally consolidates during the month of May prior to forming a mid-June peak, followed by early summer weakness (page 145). Exit the long heating oil trade from February 14 on or about May 13 (page 124).

METALS

Gold continues to remain weak from a seasonal perspective headed into the early summer month trading doldrums. Silver sees a strong tendency to peak—look to sell silver on or about May 14 and hold through June 25 for a 66.7% win ratio and a cumulative gain of $60,495 the last 39 years, and a six-year win steak from 2006–2011 (page 50). Getting short copper on or ...