Cost and Value Management in Projects, 2nd Edition

Chapter 3aAppendix to Chapter 3: Forecasting Methods for Cost and Value Management

Learning Objectives

After completing this lesson, you should be able to:

• Describe the reasons for forecasting in projects.
• Identify the various forecasting methods that can be used in projects.
• Describe an S-curve and demonstrate a method for forecasting the S-curve.
• Discuss the need for technological forecasting.
• Outline the various methods for technological forecasting.

This appendix is not for everyone. The science of forecasting is complex, and, at times, employs some strenuous mathematics. So … why is it here?

As we completed Chapter 3, we felt that some discussion of forecasting methods was warranted. We recognize that readers could readily embrace the material in this chapter without going deeply into various forecasting methods, but there are likely to be readers who want this additional information. If you are among the latter, we invite you to read on—the forecasting methods we present will be of great help in preparing reasonable cost estimates for your projects.

Forecasting takes place at the front end of the project environment. It is a critical, fundamental process for any business, and project organizations are no exception. Forecasting demand, time required for activities, and costs associated with those activities create critical input for project planning and for controlling project progress. Forecasting is also one of the primary means for tracking progress or for changing ...