Crisis-ready Leadership

6 Decision Theory

In Chapter 5, we presented a model for situational awareness and how observations, data, and other inputs can be perceived and comprehended so that a future projection can be made about the situation. This model is influenced by individual and environmental factors, and often unfolds in a dynamic uncontrolled environment. Nonetheless, decision makers must utilize situational awareness to improve problem definition in order to solve the right problem with sound decision-making. The next phase of the decision-making process involves critical thinking.

Learning Objectives

After reading this chapter, you will be able to:

• Apply Endsley’s model for situational awareness.
• Apply critical thinking skills in solving decision-based problems with one or more of the models presented in this chapter.
• Understand how time constraints affect decision quality.
• Synthesize new information to refine situational awareness and improve decision-making.
• Identify the role of expert advisors in formulating courses of action which support decision-making.
• Apply decision theory in several group exercises to develop courses of action, establish decision criteria, and make decisions.

6.1 Critical Thinking

Critical thinking is an essential skill needed to improve situational awareness. It requires clear, unbiased thinking and rationality to form a sound judgment. While there are various theories on the principles involved in critical thinking, we will present one example below that leads ...