Critical Infrastructure Resilience and Sustainability Reader

2What is a Catastrophe?

CHAPTER MENU

• 2.1 Theories of Collapse
  • 2.1.1 Normal Accident Theory (NAT)
  • 2.1.2 Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET)
  • 2.1.3 How Uncertain are Avalanches?
  • 2.1.4 Self‐Organized Criticality
• 2.2 Complex Systems Theory
  • 2.2.1 Tragedy of the Commons (TOC)
  • 2.2.2 Paradox of Enrichment (POE)
  • 2.2.3 Competitive Exclusion Principle (CEP)
  • 2.2.4 Paradox of Redundancy (POR)
• 2.3 General Systems Theory
  • 2.3.1 Emergence
  • 2.3.2 Self‐Organization
  • 2.3.3 Preferential Attachment
• 2.4 Vulnerable Industrial Commons
  • 2.4.1 TOC Failure
  • 2.4.2 POE Failure
  • 2.4.3 CEP Failure
  • 2.4.4 POR Failure
• 2.5 Resilience Versus Sustainability
  • 2.5.1 Black Swans
  • 2.5.2 Catastrophe’s Long Tail
• 2.6 Discussion
• References

The interest in public safety and security by liberal western governments intent on staying in power has grown from casual to serious over the past 100 years. One‐hundred years ago the outbreak of the Spanish Flu that killed roughly 25% of the population was of mild interest to politicians. Fifty years ago, a major flood displacing thousands of people caused government to pay reparations and encourage homeowners to buy government‐backed flood insurance. Twenty years ago, the 9/11 attacks prompted government to take full responsibility for safety and security of every citizen.

The infrastructure that everyday modern life depends on is only one piece of the safety and security puzzle, but an essential piece. It is no longer possible to go without electricity, food and water, ...