Any proper discussion of causation needs to invoke the 18th-century Scottish philosopher, David Hume (1711 to 1776), and what has come to be called “Hume’s problem of induction.” Ideas expressed in An Inquiry Concerning Human Understanding (1748) over 250 years ago have relevance for today’s marketers. Let’s first examine the problem of induction from a general perspective, and then investigate its application to marketing.
Generally, the problem of induction states that there is no justification to believe that the patterns historically observed will continue into the future. This may seem to be a ridiculous proposition since we all believe that the sun will rise tomorrow, balls drop to the ground, and hot air rises. However, ...
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