Cryptography Apocalypse

4When Will the Quantum Crypto Break Happen?

This chapter will cover the main factors involved in determining when the quantum crypto break will happen, when it might likely happen, and how it will likely play out. It will give an answer so many other quantum computing experts want to avoid: exactly when will the quantum crypto break happen?

It Was Always “10 Years from Now”

Since 1994 with the release of Peter Shor’s quantum algorithm, computer scientists and cryptographers around the globe have understood that quantum computers, if we could even make them, were likely to break existing public key ciphers and other cryptography. And if we could make them, it was just a matter of how many years afterward until the cryptographic breaks would start happening.

And for over two decades, when most of us were asked for our opinion of when it might happen, we answered, “Within the next 10 years!” I said the same thing whenever anyone asked me. Saying “Within the next 10 years!” was basically saying, “We really don’t know. Maybe soon. Maybe decades away!” It was a fudge answer.

Let me cut to the chase. No one really knows when it will happen. Anyone telling you different is taking their best guess or is part of some secret group who has already broken it but is sworn to secrecy. There is even a chance it will never happen. We could find some startling technological wall that prevents it from ever happening! There are those who believe that “never” is the likely outcome. There are those ...