CHAPTER 3

What Is Modeling?

It was the last week of June 2010. In the Gulf of Mexico, BP was struggling to stop the world’s largest oil spill. Some initial progress had been made when bad news hit: the first storm of the season, eventually known as Hurricane Alex, was beginning to form.

Would this add another layer of trouble to BP’s plate of catastrophe? Hurricane conditions would force evacuation, meaning that the oil containment and recovery efforts would stop. Countless gallons of oil would spew unchecked.

Yet failing to evacuate if the storm approached wasn’t an option. The potential loss of life was too great, and for a company that was already under fire for irresponsibility, even the appearance of being capricious with its workers’ safety ...

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