Data Analysis with R, Second Edition - Second Edition

Components of time series

It is worthwhile thinking of a time series as the combination of components, a trend component (T), a seasonal component (S), and an error (or irregular) component (E).

The trend is the long term movement of a time series. For example, both the time series in the left column of Figure 11.1 have a steady trend. The trend of the temperature anomaly data, in contrast, appears to have a slight upward trend from 1880 to around 1960, at which point the trend appears to increase at a much faster rate. This looks as if it were a non-linear trend.

The seasonal component is a pattern in the series that always occurs at a fixed, unchanging period of time. Possible periods of seasonal patterns are over every week or year. For ...