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Decide and Conquer: The Ultimate Guide for Improving Your Decision Making, Second Edition
book

Decide and Conquer: The Ultimate Guide for Improving Your Decision Making, Second Edition

by Stephen P. Robbins
October 2014
Intermediate to advanced content levelIntermediate to advanced
224 pages
4h 10m
English
Pearson
Content preview from Decide and Conquer: The Ultimate Guide for Improving Your Decision Making, Second Edition

22. Seeing Patterns That Aren’t There: Coping with Randomness

We must believe in luck. For how else can we explain the success of those we don’t like?

—E. Satie

The stock market goes up 150 points, and the analysts are quick to tell us that “low inflation and strong consumer confidence” are driving the market up. The next day, the market drops 150 points, and those same analysts tell us the reason is “uncertainty in the Middle East and increasing fears that the consumer will cut back spending because of heavy debt loads.”

Isn’t it amazing that these analysts never seem to be lost for an explanation of why the market did what it did? Interestingly, they never seem to show this insight when it comes to accurately predicting what the market might ...

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Publisher Resources

ISBN: 9780133966862Purchase book