Decisions Over Decimals

CHAPTER 2Framing the Problem

If I had an hour to solve a problem, I'd spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and 5 minutes thinking about solutions.

— Albert Einstein

In the previous chapter, we emphasized the power of asking questions. In this chapter, we build on this notion by introducing a deceptively simple yet extremely powerful question: What do I wish I knew to make the best decision? This question generates a sequence of statements we refer to as IWIK™, “I wish I knew.” IWIKs will enable you to quickly focus on the essential question and prioritize your efforts to make efficient and effective decisions.

It's often impossible to tell why decision‐making seems to take forever. An ancient parable that likely dates back to the era of the Buddha, around 500 BCE, tells the tale of a group of blind men who encounter an elephant for the first time. As they approach the animal, each man stretches out his hands and comes into contact with a different part of its hulking body. The man who touches the elephant's tail asserts that an elephant must be a long skinny animal, not unlike a snake, but the man who touches the side disagrees vehemently. An elephant, he concludes, must be a large flat animal that stretches up into the sky like some kind of living wall. Others have different opinions entirely. The man who touches the ear has reason to believe that an elephant is flat and soft, like an eel. And why wouldn't he think that? He's basing his argument on real evidence that ...