Doing Bayesian Data Analysis

Chapter 3

What Is This Stuff Called Probability?

Contents

3.1 The Set of All Possible Events

3.1.1 Coin Flips: Why You Should Care

3.2 Probability: Outside or Inside the Head

3.2.1 Outside the Head: Long-Run Relative Frequency

3.2.2 Inside the Head: Subjective Belief

3.2.3 Probabilities Assign Numbers to Possibilities

3.3 Probability Distributions

3.3.1 Discrete Distributions: Probability Mass

3.3.2 Continuous Distributions: Rendezvous with Density

3.3.3 Mean and Variance of a Distribution

3.3.4 Variance as Uncertainty in Beliefs

3.3.5 Highest Density Interval (HDI)

3.4 Two-Way Distributions

3.4.1 Marginal Probability

3.4.2 Conditional Probability

3.4.3 Independence of Attributes

3.5 R Code

3.5.1 R Code for Figure 3.1

3.5.2 R Code for Figure 3.3 ...