Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, 2nd Edition

Chapter 6

Inferring a Binomial Probability via Exact Mathematical Analysis

Contents

6.1 The Likelihood Function: Bernoulli Distribution   124

6.2 A Description of Credibilities: The Beta Distribution   126

6.2.1 Specifying a beta prior   127

6.3 The Posterior Beta   132

6.3.1 Posterior is compromise of prior and likelihood   133

6.4 Examples   134

6.4.1 Prior knowledge expressed as a beta distribution   134

6.4.2 Prior knowledge that cannot be expressed as a beta distribution   136

6.5 Summary   138

6.6 Appendix: R Code for Figure 6.4   138

6.7 Exercises   139

I built up my courage to ask her to dance

By drinking too much before taking the chance.

I fell on my butt when she said see ya later;

Less priors might make my posterior beta.¹

This ...