Driving Climate Change

you have an idea about what an environmentalist is and it might not be the

same idea that I have, which may not be the same idea as somebody else

has” (Tesch and Kempton, 2004, p. 77).

In that same vein, the issue is not only what people think, but what

their leaders or elected representatives think they think. There is a notable

disparity between the public’s views and what leaders and political leaders

expect those answers to be. Interestingly, not only did the vast majority of

Democratic congressional staffers (94 percent) support the Kyoto Protocol,

but so too did the majority of Bush administration officials (68 percent).

Only Republican staffers, 21 percent of whom supported the Kyoto Proto-

col, were largely hostile (CCFR, 2004). Nevertheless, regardless of their per-

sonal views, most leaders presumed that the public was opposed to the

agreement even though their overall level of support (71 percent) was almost

identical to that expressed by the political leaders surveyed. Still, many

more Democratic staffers (45 percent) and Bush administration officials (41

percent) correctly estimated at least the direction of support compared to

Republican staffers (15 percent). The greater recognition of the public

support of the Kyoto Protocol by Bush administration officials may help

explain their personal backing for the treaty in spite of the administration’s

continued official opposition.

Shellenberger and Nordhaus argue that “the truth is that for the vast

majority of Americans, the environment never makes it into their top ten

list of things to worry about. Protecting the environment is indeed supported

by a large majority—it’s just not supported very strongly. Once you under-

stand this, it’s much easier to understand why it’s been so easy for antienvi-

ronmental interests to gut 30 years of environmental protections”

(Shellenberger and Nordhaus, 2004, p. 11). Using their logic, if environmen-

tal concerns “never make it into their top ten,” one might ask why the envi-

ronment should be a political priority and why politicians should respond to

such a low priority with substantial resources and aggressive regulation. The

reality is that there has been longstanding bipartisan support for environ-

mental regulation and it is strong bipartisan support that led to the passage

of strong environmental legislation such as the Clean Air Act and the Clean

Water Act. To imagine that regulation of greenhouse gases can be accom-

plished without enlisting moderates and conservatives defies history and

more importantly ignores current trends in public opinion.

Conclusion

Simply because opinions may be influenced by cognitive bias, misinforma-

tion, or ignorance does not mean they are not legitimate. Every election and

referendum is contested with imperfect information. Many more decisions,

made on a daily basis by elected leaders and appointed regulators, are taken

without explicit recourse to public opinion.

From Public Understanding to Public Policy 213