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Economic and Business Forecasting: Analyzing and Interpreting Econometric Results by Sam Bullard, Sarah Watt, Kaylyn Swankoski, Azhar Iqbal, John Silvia

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Contents

Preface

Acknowledgments

Chapter 1 Creating Harmony Out of Noisy Data

Effective Decision Making: Characterize the Data

Chapter 2 First, Understand the Data

Growth: How Is the Economy Doing Overall?

Personal Consumption

Gross Private Domestic Investment

Government Purchases

Net Exports of Goods and Services

Real Final Sales and Gross Domestic Purchases

The Labor Market: Always a Core Issue

Establishment Survey

Data Revision: A Special Consideration

The Household Survey

Marrying the Labor Market Indicators Together

Jobless Claims

Inflation

Consumer Price Index: A Society's Inflation Benchmark

Producer Price Index

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator: The Inflation Benchmark for Monetary Policy

Interest Rates: Price of Credit

The Dollar and Exchange Rates: The United States in a Global Economy

Corporate Profits

Summary

Chapter 3 Financial Ratios

Profitability Ratios

Summary

Chapter 4 Characterizing a Time Series

Why Characterize a Time Series?

How to Characterize a Time Series

Application: Judging Economic Volatility

Summary

Chapter 5 Characterizing a Relationship between Time Series

Important Test Statistics in Identifying Statistically Significant Relationships

Simple Econometric Techniques to Determine a Statistical Relationship

Advanced Econometric Techniques to Determine a Statistical Relationship

Summary

Additional Reading

Chapter 6 Characterizing a Time Series Using SAS Software

Tips for SAS Users

The DATA Step

The PROC Step

Summary

Chapter 7 Testing for a Unit ...

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