Effective Succession Planning: Ensuring Leadership Continuity and Building Talent from Within, Fourth Edition

218 Assessing the Present and the Future

decisions made about how to structure responsibility and organize the work process.

5

To direct attention to likely key positions in the future, then, decision makers should

examine how the organization will respond to external pressures by structuring re-

sponsibility and organizing work processes. Key positions will emerge and old ones

will fade based on how the organization chooses to respond to environmental de-

mands. (Use the activity in Exhibit 9-2 to help decision makers address these issues.)

Preparing Realistic Future Scenarios

As a third and final step in predicting key positions in the future, compare the results

obtained from environmental scanning and organizational analysis. Draw an organi-

zation chart as decision makers believe it should appear in the future. Write the

expected future mission of each organizational function on the chart. (Make several

versions of that chart at different future time intervals—at, say, one year, three years,

five years, and ten years into the future.) Then add the names of possible leaders and

their successors.

This process is called preparing realistic future scenarios. It is based on the process

of scenario analysis, which has been widely applied to futures research and strategic

planning.

6

Use the activity appearing in Exhibit 9-3 to help decision makers structure

their thinking in preparing realistic scenarios to identify future key positions. Though

not foolproof or failsafe, this approach is one way to move beyond traditional think-

ing about SP&M to lead the target when identifying future key positions.

Three Approaches to Determining Future

Work Requirements in Key Positions

Determining future work requirements means predicting possible or probable work

activities, duties, and responsibilities in future key positions. Once likely future key

positions have been identified, direct attention to predicting work or competency

requirements for those positions. Move beyond present- or past-oriented descriptions

to assess future work or competency requirements in key positions. Toward that end,

apply one or more of the following three approaches.

1. Future-Oriented Job and Task Analysis

To conduct future-oriented job and task analysis for key positions, focus attention on

summarizing expected future activities, responsibilities, duties, or essential functions.

7

Extend the analysis by examining future tasks linked to those activities, responsibili-

ties, duties, or essential job functions. Write position descriptions as they should exist

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Assessing Future Work Requirements and Individual Potential 219

Exhibit 9-2. Activity on Organizational Analysis

Directions: How will your organization respond to the trends evident in the external

environment that will likely affect it in the future? Use this worksheet to help you

structure your thinking about how external environmental trends will affect work in

the organization.

Obtain answers to the activity appearing in Exhibit 9-1. Then answer each question

appearing in the worksheet below. Finally, compare your responses to what other

decision makers write. Use the responses to consider future work requirements in

the organization.

1. For each consequence, outcome, or result you listed in response to question 2

in Exhibit 9-1, indicate what functions/positions in the organization are most

likely to be affected and how you think those functions/positions will be—or

should be—affected.

List each consequence, out- Describe what functions/positions are

come, or result. most likely to be affected and how you

think they will be—or should be—

affected.

2. How should the organization respond to future trends? Should workflow

change? Should work methods change? Should the organization’s structure

change? Are any changes likely as a response to increasing external competitive

pressure? How does the organization’s strategic plan indicate that those chal-

lenges will be met? Will new key positions emerge as a result of changes to

organizational strategy? Will old key positions fade in importance while new

ones become more important? Will new competencies be required, and (if so)

what are they and where will they need to be demonstrated?

Provide your thoughts:

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