Chapter 12



Below is another brief concluding list, complementary to the one at the end of Chapter 11, predicting some non-policy-driven trends which may be of interest to investors. They are very general and I am not brave (or foolhardy) enough to attach detailed numbers with timeframes: continuous scenario planning requires that such matters be constantly reassessed.

1. Investors can expect emerging economies to continue their trend towards a greater share in the global economy, with all that that entails.
2. Globalisation will continue to open up opportunities for emerging markets and be viewed more ambiguously in the developed world. Emerging market labour will compete with developed country workers either directly (subject to immigration policies) or indirectly via global goods markets. This may pressure the financing of Western welfare states, and stimulate higher productivity growth and innovation in many Western economies. There will also, however, be a combination of complacency and resistance to this competition.
3. As emerging market economic production enters higher-technology product areas, so developed countries will continue to specialise in international export markets in the highest value-added sectors. But even finance, higher education and film and media industries (industries with high barriers to entry and incumbent market power) will face increased competition from emerging markets as the emerging market middle-class consumers ...

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