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Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything by Jonathan Tepper, John Mauldin

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CHAPTER SIX

The Future of Public Debt

An Unsustainable Path

Those who are most commonly creditors of a nation are, generally speaking, enlightened men; and there are signal examples to warrant a conclusion that when a candid and fair appeal is made to them, they will understand their true interest too well to refuse their concurrence in such modifications of their claims, as any real necessity may demand.

—Alexander Hamilton, Report on Public Credit, January 9, 1790

Our argument in Endgame is that while the debt supercycle is still growing on the back of increasing government debt, there is an end to that process, and we are fast approaching it. It is a world where not only will expanding government spending have to be brought under control but also it will actually have to be reduced.

In this chapter, we will look at a crucial report, “The Future of Public Debt: Prospects and Implications,” by Stephen G. Cecchetti, M. S. Mohanty, and Fabrizio Zampolli, published by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS).1 The BIS is often thought of as the central banker to central banks. It does not have much formal power, but it is highly influential and has an esteemed track record; after all, it was one of the few international bodies that consistently warned about the dangers of excessive leverage and extremes in credit growth. Although the BIS is quite conservative by its nature, the material covered in this paper is startling to those who read what are normally very academic and dense ...

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