Energy Resources

399

28

Quantitative Analysis of Energy

Management Options

Introduction

Theodore [1] has previously developed a calculational procedure for allow-

ing a technical individual to quantify a decision-requiring process that is

a function of numerous, difcult to evaluate variables. This procedure has

already been applied to the three applications listed here:

1. Fly ash control options for coal-red utility boilers [2]

2. Pollution prevention options [3]

3. Wastewater sludge management [4]

The application of this procedure to energy resources is described here

for the United States, developed countries, and underdeveloped countries.

The purpose of these analyses is to provide quantitative information that

might allow one to select what one might describe as the “optimum” energy

resource matrix and/or policy.

One might notice that political forces and issues are not addressed in the

quantitative analysis presented in this chapter as political considerations

have been briey discussed in Chapter 24. The role of politics should be to

use the information obtained from a quantitative analysis in the develop-

ment of an energy management policy. However, politics is not as analytical

as science and, as such, can subtly, if not profoundly, change the direction

of a nation’s approach to energy management, regardless of the results of

any quantitative analysis. Neither of the authors agrees with establishing a

policy that is inconsistent with an unbiased quantitative assessment of the

various elements comprising the earlier dened energy matrix.

400 Energy Resources: Availability, Management, and Environmental Impacts

Energy Resource Comparison Procedure

An evaluation methodology is now established for the comparison of energy

resources. It is an attempt to provide an answer to the question: Can a proce-

dure be developed that can realistically and practically quantify the overall

advantages and disadvantages of the various energy resource options?

Energy resources (categories) are provided in Table28.1. A list of the param-

eters that affect the answer to this question for each energy category has been

prepared by the authors [5] and is shown in Table28.2. These parameters

include resource quantity, resource availability, energy quality, economic

concerns, conversion requirements, transportation requirements, delivery

requirements, operation and maintenance, regulatory issues, environmental

concerns, consumer experience, and public acceptance. An attempt to per-

form this analysis on the various energy categories has been made for the

United States and for different sectors of the world.

One method of obtaining a quantitative answer to the preceding question

is to assign simple weighting factors to each energy parameter in Table28.2

based on available information and sound engineering judgment. A higher

number reects a more attractive answer to the question. (For example, a

higher number in the resource quantity [RQ] parameter indicates greater

resource quantity; a higher number in the economics concerns [EC] parame-

ter indicates lower relative cost.) However, the assignment of simple weighting

factor numbers, based on the same number range for each parameter, does

not take into account the relative importance (or the “weight”) of the vari-

ous parameters involved. This type of indexing is referred to as unweighted,

and an unweighted index number analysis can often be misleading. (For

example, if the consumer price index were based on the unit price of each of

TABLE28.1

Energy Resource Categories

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

Shale

Tar sands

Solar

Nuclear (fusion)

Hydroelectric

Wind

Geothermal

Hydrogen

Bioenergy

Other