Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel, + Website, 2nd Edition

CHAPTER 6

Selecting Run Preferences

Now that we have covered the basics of setting up a Crystal Ball model and using its forecasts to help you make decisions, we take a closer look at the options available through the Run Preferences menu to control the execution of your simulation models.

6.1 TRIALS

Figure 6.1 shows the Trials tab of the Run Preferences dialog box. A Crystal Ball trial is the process of generating random variates from the stochastic assumptions you have defined for your model, evaluating the formulas that depend on these values, then calculating and storing the forecast values.

FIGURE 6.1 Run Preferences Trials tab.

FIGURE 6.2 Simulation Cycle.

When you click the Run button, Crystal Ball begins executing the steps depicted in Figure 6.2. The actions taken by Crystal Ball at each step are described here:

Start is where Crystal Ball prepares itself to run a simulation by looking for the assumption and forecast cells in your spreadsheet and getting ready to store forecast values in your computer’s memory.

Set Values is where each trial begins by Crystal Ball generating a random value for each stochastic assumption and placing it in the corresponding assumption cell.

Recalculate is where Crystal Ball instructs Excel to use the values that were just placed in the ...