Forecasting Air Travel Demand

8   Long-term air travel demand forecasting

An integrated method with ARDL bounds testing approach and scenario planning

The long-term air travel demand forecasting usually spans a period of 5 to 20 years and might be required in the management decisions such as facilities expansion or planning, long-term financial commitments, etc. Therefore, a long-term air travel demand forecast is of vital importance as a key basis for future infrastructure planning and construction decisions, especially for a fast-growing air transportation market like China. Scientific and effective planning can guarantee a sustainable development and prevent excess capacity. However, forecasting future demand over such a long time horizon is faced with challenges different ...