Chapter 9
Impact Assessment
Chapter Summary: This chapter presents an overview of impact assessment as designed for use in technology forecasting as a decision-making tool. It lays out the distinction between impacts on technology and impacts of technology. Then it presents the structure of a comprehensive approach to impact assessment. Finally, it addresses three steps in impact assessment: impact identification, analysis, and evaluation.
Impact assessment is a systematic examination of the effects on or of new developments such as technologies, processes, policies, organizations, and so on. Impact assessments are classified as policy studies, since they can affect the policies of the organizations that conduct them as well as those of other stakeholders. In most cases, impact assessments should result in actions. Assessments may be freestanding or part of another study such as a technology forecast.
Impact assessment is a necessary component of technology forecasting. It identifies areas in which significant impacts may occur, their likelihood, and their significance. The forecaster must evaluate these impacts, consider measures to enhance or inhibit them, and factor them into the planning process for developing the technology.
