Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

7.3 Examples and Applications

The following subsections provide three examples of scenario analysis. The goals are to demonstrate the diversity of approaches used in scenario analysis and to highlight the wide range of social and technical systems to which it has been applied. The first example involves the use of scenarios in renewable energy planning (de Vries, van Vuuren, et al. 2007). It entails external forces scenarios. The second example involves the creation of strategic scenarios of technology change in the field of pervasive computing (Satyanaran 2001). The final example presents normative scenarios that were used to facilitate social change in South Africa (Mont Fleur Scenarios 1992).

7.3.1 Scenarios for Renewable Energy Planning

External forces scenarios involve testing key assumptions and their effects; this type of scenario is often highly quantitative and relies upon using models or simulation techniques. In this case, the associated models are the emission scenarios produced by the International Panel for Climate Change (IMAGE-team 2001).

De Vries and coauthors (2007) used the models to create robust projections of renewable energy production in the first half of the twenty-first century. The three renewable energy sources considered were wind, biomass, and solar energy. As the authors note, previous emissions studies were based on critical assumptions about land use and technological viability. Therefore, to critically test assumptions and to better understand ...