Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

11.4 Selecting from among Alternative Implementations of the Technology

The forecast typically offers more than one viable option for implementing the technology. Selecting among them occurs after the mission is developed but before organizational actions are designed. From the mission statement and the forecast, specific questions arise such as:

1. What are the implementations from which the selection is to be made?

2. Who will be involved in the selection, and what roles will they play?

3. What criteria will be used for the selection, and how will they be weighed?

4. How will the criteria to be measured?

Answering these questions helps structure the selection process.

The answer to the first question is provided by the focusing phase of the forecasting process. It implies that the alternatives are technically feasible, economically viable, and involve no “show stoppers” resulting from larger societal issues. The answers to the second and third questions are determined by the decision-making process of the implementing organization. However, it is always a good idea to get the views of stakeholders outside the organization even if they aren't involved in the selection process. Answering the final question depends on judgments about the criteria that are compelling to the implementers and the decision makers.

Identifying participants in the selection process is critical. Here much of the information provided in Section 5.1 will help. There is an obvious trade-off between a broadly ...