Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

12.2 Selecting Methods and Techniques

This book offers methods and techniques to support the three-phase forecasting approach. Some of them will be used in most cases; others will be only occasionally useful.

12.2.1 Using the TDS and the Major Families of Techniques

Constructing and maintaining the TDS or some other map of the critical elements of the technology and its societal context are essential for any forecast. This should be done at a level of detail necessary to meet the needs of the forecast. The TDS is not static. Forecasters and implementers should track its changes over time until the technology is of no further interest.

Monitoring is a very basic technique that takes on many forms. It should continue at varying levels throughout the forecast phases, during implementation, and beyond. How it is used depends on the nature of the forecast.

Expert opinion gathering, in its simplest form, monitors what experts are saying in publicly available sources. It begins in the exploring phase. While gathering expert and stakeholder opinions by structured approaches, such as surveys and panels, may be helpful in the exploring phase, it likely will be even more useful in analyzing, focusing, and implementing.

Trend analysis, in its various forms, is an important technique. Although generally accessible projections are useful in exploring, specific trend analyses will be even more useful in later phases. Since available data often are scarce, it frequently is necessary to use an ...