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Forecasting Fundamentals by Nada Sanders

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CHAPTER 5

Judgmental Forecasting Models

Weather forecast for tonight: dark.

—George Carlin

The Basics

Judgmental forecasting methods—also called qualitative forecasting methods—are forecasting methods based on opinions of an individual or a group of individuals. Here are some examples of judgmental forecasts.

  • The sales staffs at a car dealership have a group meeting to make a prediction how many vehicles they will sell next quarter.

  • A doctor at Johns Hopkins gives his opinion on the spread of the Zika virus.

  • The team of journalists predicts who will be elected in the next presidential election.

  • A company asks customers their purchase intentions, such as whether they will buy the new iPhone.

  • Financial experts predict stock prices.

Judgmental ...

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