Weather forecast for tonight: dark.
—George Carlin
The Basics
Judgmental forecasting methods—also called qualitative forecasting methods—are forecasting methods based on opinions of an individual or a group of individuals. Here are some examples of judgmental forecasts.
The sales staffs at a car dealership have a group meeting to make a prediction how many vehicles they will sell next quarter.
A doctor at Johns Hopkins gives his opinion on the spread of the Zika virus.
The team of journalists predicts who will be elected in the next presidential election.
A company asks customers their purchase intentions, such as whether they will buy the new iPhone.
Financial experts predict stock prices.
Judgmental ...
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