7 SELF-DRIVING CARSJANUARY 2012

The granting of patents to Google® for the self-driving car has now forced me to retire one of my longest lasting futures workshop games. Still, it has served me well for over a decade. I’d like to share some of the lessons learned from it. Whenever I read futures predictions on technology so many of them fall into the traps of this little exercise.

Consider this claim:

‘In the future blind people will be able to drive cars.’

If you want to play the game yourself, please do so.

I have four questions:

Q1 What is the probability at some point in the future that this will be true?

Q2 If you had all the money and resources given to you today, how long would it take to build a concept mock-up that would demonstrate ...

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