Further Reading
The field of forecasting and future studies is vast. This partial list
focuses just on key texts helpful in assessing forecasts and works
specifically mentioned in the text.
Ascher, W., Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy Makers and Plan-
ners (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978).
Bell, W., Foundations of Futures Studies (Edison, NJ: Transaction
Press, 1996).
Chan Kim, W., & Mauborgne, R., “Charting Your Company’s Fu-
ture.” Harvard Business Review (May-June, 2002).
Clarke, I.F., The Pattern of Expectation 1644-2001 (London:
Jonathan Cape, 1979).
Courtney, H. et al., “Strategy Under Uncertainty,” Harvard Business
Review (November-December, 1997).
Courtney, H., 20/20 Foresight (Boston: HBS Press, 2001).
Day, G., & Schoemaker, P., “Scanning the Periphery.” Harvard
Business Review (November-December, 2005).
De Geus, A., The Living Company (Boston: HBS Press, 1997).
Duncan, N., “Why Can’t We Predict?” New Scientist, 136(1841)
(October, 1992).
Gibbons, P. L., “The Forecast Filter.” AMS Catalyst (Spring, 2002).
Glenn, J., & Gordon, T. (Eds.), Futures Research Methodology, v2.0
(CD-ROM) (New York: American Council for the United Nations
University, Millennium Project, 2003).
Hamel, G., & Prahalad, C.K., Competing for the Future (Boston:
HBS Press, 1994).
Hamel, G., & Prahalad, C.K., “Strategic Intent.” Harvard Business
Review (May-June, 1989).
Hines, A., “A Checklist for Evaluating Forecasts.” The Futurist
(November-December, 1995).
Hines, A., & Bishop, P., Thinking about the Future, Guidelines for
Strategic Foresight (Washington, DC: Social Technologies, 2007).
James, J., Thinking in the Future Tense (New York: Simon & Schus-
ter, 1996).
Jervis, R., Systemic Effects (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press,
Kleiner, A., “The Man Who Saw the Future.” Strategy+Business
(Spring, 2003).
Kleiner, A., “Consequential Heresies.” Global Business Network
Kleiner, A., “The End of the Official Future.” Garbage Magazine
(March-April, 1992).
Liotta, P., & Somes, T., “The Art of Reperceiving.” Naval War Col-
lege Review (Autumn, 2003).
Mahaffie, J., “Why Forecasts Fail.” American Demographics (March,
Paulos, J.A., A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper (New York:
Basic Books, 1996).
Rittel, H., & Webber, M., “Dilemmas in a General Theory of Plan-
ning.” Policy Sciences, 4 (1973).
Rogers, E., Diffusion of Innovations (New York: Free Press, 1962).
Schnaars, S., Megamistakes (New York: Free Press, 1989).
Schwartz, P., The Art of the Long View (New York: Doubleday, 1991).
Schwartz, P., Leyden, P., & Hyatt, J., The Long Boom: A Vision for the
Coming Age of Prosperity (New York: Perseus Publishing, 1999).
Sherden, W., The Fortune Sellers (New York: John Wiley & Sons,
Scott Armstrong, J., Long-Range Forecasting, 2nd ed. (New York:
John Wiley & Sons, 1985).
Seidensticker, B., Futurehype: The Myths of Technology Change (San
Francisco: BK Books, 2006).
Slaughter, R., The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies (Foresight In-
ternational, 2005).
van der Heijden, K., Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation
(New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2005).
van der Heijden, K., Bradfield, R., Burt, G., Cairns, G., & Wright, G.,
The Sixth Sense (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2002).
Wachs, M., “When Planners Lie with Numbers.” Journal of the
American Planning Association, 55 (1989).
Wachs, M., “Forecasting vs Envisioning,” Journal of the American
Planning Association, 67 (2001).
Wack, P., “Scenarios: Unchartered Waters Ahead.” Harvard Business
Review (September-October, 1985).
Wack, P., “Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids.” Harvard Business Re-
view (November-December, 1985).
Walt, S., “The Hidden Nature of Systems.” The Atlantic Monthly
(September, 1998).
Weiner, E., & Brown A., An Insider’s Guide to the Future (New
York: WEB, 1997).
Weiner, E., & Brown, A., Future Think (Upper Saddle River, NJ:
Prentice Hall, 2005).
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