Predicting the Unpredictable

How to analyze project risks using event chain methodology.

Lev Virine and Michael Trumper

Federation Tower is one of the largest construction projects in Moscow, Russia, but it has had a troubled history. The project team initially planned a 62-story west tower and a 93-story east tower, with a 506-meter spire in between. In 2008, the west tower was completed, but work on the partially built east tower was suspended due to lack of funding. Construction resumed in 2011, but the halt had caused technical issues that had to be fixed. The next year, a fire delayed the project again. Then a main contractor was replaced. In 2014, stakeholders decided to demolish the partially erected spire, change the design and increase ...

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