Global Dynamics

Chapter 17An Integrated Model^*

Robert G. Levy

^*The author would like to acknowledge Peter Baudains who wrote the text of Sections 17.4.2–17.4.4; Thomas Evans for his work on the model and its 200-country extension; Adam Dennett for his migration estimates; Alan Wilson for his overall contribution to many of the ideas in this chapter.

17.1 Introduction

In Chapter 4 of this book, we introduced a model of linked input–output models using the 40 national input–output tables of the World Input–Output Database (WIOD). We will refer to this model throughout this chapter as “the global dynamics model”. In Chapter 5 of Geo-Mathematical Modelling, we presented a method for extending the global dynamics model via mathematical estimation techniques to include a more complete set of countries.

In this final chapter, we draw these threads together and use the extended version of the global dynamics model to show how it might be used to address questions of global dynamics. Specifically, we use the global picture that our extended model gives us to look at the impact of three global domains: migration, aid and international security. In each case, we propose some simple assumptions about how the global dynamics model might interact with the phenomena described by the domain and examine the effects of these assumptions given either a set of domain data or a particular domain scenario. We will often assess the impact of a particular domain on the modelled countries by measuring the effect that ...