Handbook of Decision Analysis

CHAPTER SIX

Frame the Decision Opportunity

STEVEN N. TANI and GREGORY S. PARNELL

A pessimist is one who makes difficulties of his opportunities and an optimist is one who makes opportunities of his difficulties.

—Harry S. Truman

Opportunities multiply as they are seized.

—Sun Tzu

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Declaring a Decision

6.3 What Is a Good Decision Frame?

6.4 Achieving a Good Decision Frame

6.4.1 Vision Statement

6.4.2 Issue Raising

6.4.3 Categorization of Issues

6.4.4 Decision Hierarchy

6.4.5 Values and Trade-Offs

6.4.6 Initial Influence Diagram

6.4.7 Decision Schedule and Logistics

6.5 Framing the Decision Opportunities for the Illustrative Examples

6.5.1 Roughneck North American Strategy (RNAS)

6.5.2 Geneptin Personalized Medicine

6.5.3 Data Center Decision

6.6 Summary

Key Terms

References

6.1 Introduction

The decision frame is the lens that we use to view the decision problem or opportunity. We believe that a good decision frame is critical to decision quality (see Chapter 5). Creating a good frame is the first task that a decision practitioner should undertake when working on a decision. Almost every decision process begins with a step that focuses on describing the decision problem or the decision opportunity. As described in Chapter 5, the dialogue decision process begins with “decision framing.” Decision framing is the first step in decision quality. Clemen and Reilly’s decision analysis process flow chart begins with “Identify the decision situation and understand objectives” ...