Chapter 18
Calibration and Expert Testing
Wojciech Olszewski* * Department of Economics, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA
Abstract
I survey and discuss the recent literature on testing experts or probabilistic forecasts, which I would describe as a literature on “strategic hypothesis testing” The starting point of this literature is some surprising results of the following type: suppose that a criterion forjudging probabilistic forecasts (which I will call a test) has the property that if data are generated by a probabilistic model, then forecasts generated by that model pass the test. It, then, turns out an agent who knows only the test by which she is going to be judged, but knows nothing about the data-generating process, ...
