Health Care Operations and Supply Chain Management: Strategy, Operations, Planning, and Control

CHAPTER 12

FORECASTING FOR HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

• Understand and know appropriate usage of various time series forecasting models.
• Construct moving averages and exponential smoothing models using Excel.
• Understand what autocorrelation is and its link to seasonality.
• Understand and identify dependent and independent variables and use them in a regression model.
• Develop simple linear and multiple regression models with Excel’s Data Analysis package and use it to predict values of the dependent variable.
• Interpret the output from Excel’s Data Analysis regression package, including the correlation coefficient R, the coefficient of determination R2, the F-test, the t-tests, and p-values.
• Understand and speak to multicollinearity, ...