How to Lead, 4th Edition

Chapter 31

Making decisions in uncertainty

Most decisions are relatively easy. But not all. Occasionally you are faced with a high-stakes decision which is shrouded in fog and ambiguity. This fog appears for various reasons:

• Uncertainty: not all the facts may be apparent and the criteria for making a decision may not be known or may be contested.
• High stakes: the consequences of making the wrong decision could be severe, not just for the firm but also for yourself.
• Politics: the consequences of a decision may be uneven across your organisation, so different groups will start fighting hard for their preferred option.
• Multiple perspectives: the opportunity will look very different depending on what angle you look at it from and what criteria ...