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How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk: Why uncertainty management can be a much better approach than risk management by Stephen Ward, Chris Chapman

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Glossary of terms as used in this book

Ambiguity uncertainty Lack of complete/perfect knowledge which could be acquired if plans were made, decisions agreed and other sources of ambiguity in the plain English sense resolved. Uncertainty in the lack of certainty sense as used in this book involves four components: ambiguity uncertainty, inherent variability, event uncertainty and systemic uncertainty. When the meaning is obvious we just use ‘ambiguity’ instead of ‘ambiguity uncertainty’. See Chapter 1.

Balanced incentive and risk sharing (BIARS) contract Contract using payment scales that incentivize performance on several performance criteria which are balanced so that a client’s desired tradeoffs between performance criteria are employed by the contractor and acceptable ‘risk sharing’ ratios for each performance criterion are used.

Bottom-up In terms of a model building process, a bottom-up approach starts at a chosen level of decomposition and builds up. For example, a PERT model assumes a level of decomposition defined by the number and nature of the activities chosen, the model building up the uncertainty associated with the duration of each activity via network-based precedence assumptions to define project duration uncertainty.

Clarity Insight (understanding) which can be shared. Too little clarity is an important decision taking risk. Too much clarity, even if it is obtained in a clarity efficient manner, is an unnecessary drain on resources. What constitutes sufficient ...

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