How can managers reduce the number of "unknown unknowns" a project faces? Even projects that employ sophisticated techniques for risk management can encounter surprising derailments. But new research shows that modeling a project's subsystems helps expose risk areas. So, too, can scenario analysis, the use of checklists and data mining. "Directed recognition, which can entail both project design and behavioral approaches, can convert knowable unk-unks [unknown unknowns] to known unknowns," write the authors.