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Illuminating Statistical Analysis Using Scenarios and Simulations by Jeffrey E. Kottemann

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10Judging Opinion Splits II

Rather than checking whether a community as a whole might be evenly split, let's figure out how to use our sample proportion statistic and confidence interval to determine what the actual overall community opinion split might actually be.

Now, let's say that the proportion of agree for the entire community is actually 0.40. Only omniscient beings know this. We'll use the 0.40 community proportion of agree for a survey sampling simulation. The histogram in Figure 10.1 shows what happened when 1000 independent surveyors each surveyed 100 random community members. The histogram shows the distribution of the 1000 sample proportions.

A bar graphical representation for 1000 separate surveyors each sample 100 random people, where frequency is plotted on the y-axis on a scale of 0–100 and sample proportions on the x-axis on a scale of 0.26–0.54.

Figure 10.1

Based ...

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