Innovate or Perish: Managing the Enduring Technology Company in the Global Market

The Importance of Business Growth

John Seeley Brown, director emeritus of the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center, observed, “It is not technology per se that matters, but rather technology in use. That, and its role in driving business growth, is what is so hard to predict.^[1] For example, here are a few infamous predictions about future product markets:

^[1] Brown, John Seeley. Foreword, in Chesbrough, Henry. Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2005).

• “There is no reason for an individual to have a computer in his home.” This quote, made by in 1977 by Kenneth Olsen, cofounder and chief executive officer (CEO) of Digital Equipment Corporation, looks ridiculous in light of today’s reality, where 70% of U.S. households have one or more computers.

• Equally incongruent in hindsight is a 1992 quote from a friend of mine, a French chemical engineer: “Why would anyone want to buy water in a bottle?” This question pales in light of today’s $22 billion annual worldwide market in bottled water.

• Some say the most amazing quote is attributed to Charles H. Duell, the U.S. Patent Office Commissioner in 1899: “Everything that can be invented has already been invented.” With over six million U.S. patents granted since the beginning of the twentieth century and new inventions being filed at a rate of 450,000 per year, a more erroneous prediction is hard to imagine.

Looking at the issue from a higher level, the ultimate value ...