Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response

394

d

μ

=

=⋅

−

01

90

−

03

71

⋅

0

23

10

2

4

..

1

90

..

3

10

In calculation above, 0.19 and 0.03 are the fatality rates at unprotected and light signal

LCs, respectively. The de/e cannot directly be computed because the age-specific increase

in mortality rate is not available. In (Nathwani, et al., 1997; Rackwitz, 2002) a simplified

formulations are provided to calculate the de/e. These formulations are based on empirical

studies. It is shown there that a small change (≤ 0.01%) in mortality rate dμ is approximately

proportional to the change in life expectancy de/e. We make use of Table 1 in (Rackwitz,

2002) and compute the change in life expectancy equivalent to 13 ...