Chapter 8

Feedbacks and Disruption: Sources of Uncertainty


Although integrated assessment models (IAMs) have given great attention to the impact of human systems on biophysical systems, they have devoted less attention to the impacts of those biophysical changes back to human systems, including socioeconomic change. The emergence of the Sustainable Development Goals has emphasized those important linkages. The IAMs that have focused most heavily on broad human impacts have tended to be of relatively smaller scale than other global models. They have used some combination of techniques involving enumeration of specific paths of impact and statistical analysis of comprehensive economic impact. One frontier for global modeling is enhancement ...

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