September 2015
Beginner
596 pages
18h 33m
English
Content preview from Introduction to ProbabilityBecome an O’Reilly member and get unlimited access to this title plus top books and audiobooks from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers, thousands of courses curated by job role, 150+ live events each month,
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Chapter 9
Conditional expectation
Given that you’ve read the earlier chapters, you already know what conditional expectation is: expectation, but using conditional probabilities. This is an essential concept, for reasons analogous to why we need conditional probability:
- Conditional expectation is a powerful tool for calculating expectations. Using strategies such as conditioning on what we wish we knew and first-step analysis, we can often decompose complicated expectation problems into simpler pieces.
- Conditional expectation is a relevant quantity in its own right, allowing us to predict or estimate unknowns based on whatever evidence is currently available. For example, in statistics we often want to predict a response variable (such as test ...
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