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Landing Page Optimization: The Definitive Guide to Testing and Tuning for Conversions, 2nd Edition by Rich Page, Maura Ginty, Tim Ash

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Have I Found Something Better?

Landing page optimization is based on statistics, and statistics is based in turn on probability theory. Probability theory is concerned with the study of random events, but a lot of people might object that the behavior of your landing page visitors is not “random.” Your visitors are not as simple as the roll of a die. They visit your landing page for a reason and act (or fail to act) based on their own internal motivations.

So what does probability mean in this context?

Let’s conduct a little thought experiment. Imagine that we are about to flip a fair coin. It has the potential to be in one of two states (heads or tails). What would you estimate the probability of it coming up heads to be? Fifty percent, right? ...

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