11. Lessons from Risk Analysis: Terrorism, Natural Disasters, and Technological Accidents
Detlof von Winterfeldt1
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Overview
Risk is defined as a combination of three elements: scenario, probability, and consequences. A scenario is a sequence of events that is a subset of mutually exclusive and exhaustive sequences of events that could happen in a particular risk context. Probabilities reflect the relative likelihood of scenarios. Consequences (for example, fatalities, injuries, economic impacts) are defined at the end of the sequence of events.2
This general definition of risk and has withstood the test of time and applies to natural disaster risks, technological risks, and terrorism risks. ...
Get Learning from Catastrophes: Strategies for Reaction and Response now with the O’Reilly learning platform.
O’Reilly members experience books, live events, courses curated by job role, and more from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers.
