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Managing Commodity Price Risk by George A. Zsidisin

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Chapter 2

Forecasting Short-Term Commodity Prices

Short- and long-term commodity price forecasts help supply chain managers make better risk management decisions for their companies. Long-term forecasts are looking out in the future 1 year or more. Short-term forecasts look ahead to the next few weeks, months, or quarters.

In this chapter, we describe how to use technical analysis to develop short-term forecasts, and in chapter 3, we discuss long-term forecasts. Technical analysis reviews historical price patterns, and forecasts are based on assumptions about future price patterns. To use a technical analysis, you only need historical prices. The theory supporting technical analysis suggests that all marketplace information about a commodity ...

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