4 Identify Risk
We are slaves to whatever we do not understand.
—Vernon Howard
In October 1993, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force Lloyd K. Mosemann wrote in a memo: “It appears that many problems of large-scale software development and maintenance, such as cost overruns, schedule slips, and unmet performance objectives, are in fact the result of the difficulties in effectively managing extremely large and complex undertakings—particularly in the areas of planning and baselining, control, visibility, and risk management. In all likelihood, effective management techniques are not as widely understood or utilized as they could be.” Mosemann articulated the very reason that risk management is rarely performed: most people do not know where ...
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