Managing Uncertainty: Strategies for Surviving and Thriving in Turbulent Times

Preface

WHEN IN 2009 we first thought of writing a book on managing uncertainty, it was through intellectual curiosity about what our research would reveal.

A wealth of work on the topic had been published in the previous decade, but as much of it was written by academics, it was theoretical and not based on commercial good practice. Much of it was dated and nothing had been written since the global financial crisis that unleashed a new era of uncertainty for organisations to cope with.

Our initial instinct that the 2008 crisis was out of the ordinary proved correct. When it occurred, many senior executives assumed that it was another turn in the boom-and-bust cycle that had characterised macroeconomics in developed economies since the end of the second world war. They reacted accordingly, cutting costs and “hunkering down” for what they supposed would be a painful but short period of austerity.

However, the crisis has ushered in a period of unprecedented uncertainty, with the economic unknowns augmented by political and social unknowns arising from such developments as the Arab spring and the anti-capitalist and anti-austerity protests in a number of developed countries.

Uncertainty is here to stay. Not for nothing did a secretary-general of the United Nations recently comment that the first years of the 21st century may well prove “a decisive moment in the human story”, requiring co-operation by politicians and business leaders across all boundaries to respond to the interconnected ...