7 Macrosystem models of population dynamics

An important problem of demographic analysis consists in modeling of population state evolvement in time and space. Here one would identify (at least) two fundamentally different approaches. The first approach bases on involving retrospective statistical data to find parameters of time series; subsequently, these parameters serve for forecasting future changes in population state (under the assumption of parameters invariance). The second approach (to-be-followed in this book) proceeds from mathematical models of the phenomenological laws or mechanisms engendering population dynamics. Such models possibly include parameters whose values appear unknown or uncertain. Their evaluation will use retrospective ...

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