Mathematical Modeling in the Social and Life Sciences

CHAPTER 2

Stable and Unstable Arms Races

There is scarce truth enough alive to make societies secure, but security enough to make fellowships accurs'd. Much upon this riddle runs the wisdom of the world. This news is old enough, yet it is every day's news.

—William Shakespeare, Measure for Measure

I. The Real-World Setting

“Today, our troops have newer and better equipment, and their morale is high. The better armed they are, the less likely it is they will have to use that equipment. But if, heaven forbid, they are ever called upon to defend this nation, nothing would be more immoral than asking them to do so with weapons inferior to those of any possible opponent. . . .

None of the four wars of my lifetime came about because we were too strong. It is weakness that invites adventurous adversaries to make mistaken judgments.

[Ours] is the most peaceful, least warlike nation in modern history, We are not the cause of all the ills of this world. We are a patient and generous people. But for the sake of our freedom and that of others we cannot permit our reserve to be confused with a lack of resolve.”

—Leader A

“Now let us turn to international affairs. One of the most important and insistent instructions of the . . . voters was, is and will remain, the instruction to safeguard peace like the apple of our eye and to ensure the security of our homeland. I can tell you that [we] have been strictly following this instruction, doing so in difficult circumstances.

You know that the past ...