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Money Machine by Gary Smith

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TIMING THE MARKET

Wall Street is having a sale.

—ANONYMOUS

If the alternative is indexing, then the question of timing stock purchases and sales is mostly a question of whether being out of the market is better than being in the market. Add in the presumption that stocks, on average, do better than Treasury bonds, and we should be pretty confident that stocks are overpriced before exiting the stock market.

Jumping in and out of the market weekly, daily, or even more frequently is undoubtedly a mistake. Short-term movements in stock prices are just too hard to predict. However, there are bubbly times when stocks are clearly overpriced and the prudent ...

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