With Safari, you learn the way you learn best. Get unlimited access to videos, live online training, learning paths, books, tutorials, and more.

No credit card required

Thinking About Probability

Many people become familiar with the concept of probability from ­everyday conversations. What is the probability of rain today? What is the chance of getting stuck in traffic? What is the likelihood of having a particular illness? What are the odds our favorite sports team will win the game? When someone says there is a 90 percent chance of the ­freeway looking like a parking lot, we typically prepare to be stuck in traffic. ­Alternatively, when the person says there is only a 10 percent chance of the freeway being congested, we worry less about the possibility of traffic.

Intuitively, people tend to think about probabilities as long-run ­relative frequencies.1 When a friend asks about the probability of our favorite ...

With Safari, you learn the way you learn best. Get unlimited access to videos, live online training, learning paths, books, interactive tutorials, and more.

No credit card required