March 2013
Intermediate to advanced
172 pages
4h 22m
English
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Thinking About Probability
Many people become familiar with the concept of probability from everyday conversations. What is the probability of rain today? What is the chance of getting stuck in traffic? What is the likelihood of having a particular illness? What are the odds our favorite sports team will win the game? When someone says there is a 90 percent chance of the freeway looking like a parking lot, we typically prepare to be stuck in traffic. Alternatively, when the person says there is only a 10 percent chance of the freeway being congested, we worry less about the possibility of traffic.
Intuitively, people tend to think about probabilities as long-run relative frequencies.1 When a friend asks about the probability of our favorite ...
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